CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL AT CAPE LOOKOUT,NC

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

CAT 1 HURRICANE IRENE HAS MADE A LANDFALL WITH ITS CENTER JUST MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE LOOKOUT,NC.. IRENE IS LOCATED AS OF 0800 EDT AT 34.7N,76.5W WITH MSLP OF 952MB AND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85MPH!

WE ARE WAITING FOR THE LANDFALL DATAS... STAY TUNES

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
VIA- EMAIL BLOG

THE LAST REMAINS OF HURRICANE IRENE...

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENED CAT 2 HURRICANE WITH MSLP OF 950MB AT 32.1N,77.2W AROUND 290 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT,NC.. WITH MAX 1 MIN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100MPH AS OF 08PM EDT..
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ENVELOPING IRENE AND THUS CHOKING OUT ITS THERMODYNAMIC SYSTEM. IRENE HAS ENTERED THE REGION OF MODERATE HWIND SHEAR OF AROUND 20KT WHICH IN COUPLE WITH DECREASING LLC AND UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING IRENE
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO HIT EAST COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW EARLY MORNING ( 27TH AUG) AS A BARE CAT 2 OR EVEN A CAT 1.. AFTER THE PARTIAL LANDFALL,JET STREAMS WILL TURN IRENE NE AND IT SHALL AGAIN ENTER ATLANTIC AND RACE TOWARDS THE NORTH EAST CORRIDOR WHERE DUE TO RAPID WEAKENING,IT SHALL REMAIN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE ENTERING LAND NEAR VIRGINIA. THE SUBSEQUENT RESULT SHALL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WITH MODERATE WINDS

*** AS MENTIONED EARLIER,IRENE POSSES NO LONGER A STRONG THREAT AS WAS BEING ANTICIPATED BUT CAPABLE ENOUGH TO INTERUP LIFE OF PEOPLE IN NE USA..

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Hurricane Irene to reach Carolinas today

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF CATEGORY 2

HURRICANE IRENE WILL START THE STORM SURGES GREATER THAN 2FT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

IN SOUTH CAROLINA, COASTAL AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR STORM SURGES,HURRICANE FORCED WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS .....

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA EAST OF JACKSONVILLE,NC AROUND 1-4AM LOCAL TIME OF 27TH AUG 2011

STRONG WINDS,FLOODING POTENTIALS LIKELY HERE

IRENE IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH EAST US WITH EXTREME HEAVY RAINS AS IRENE DISSAPATES AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

*** THERE IS A POOR CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION OR IRENE IN NEXT 12HRS due to INCREASED SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,DECREASING SST AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVEL..

DRY AIR INFLUX ALSO SHALL REDUCE INTENSITY

*** IRENE MIGHT HAVE AROUND 100MPH WINDS DURING LANDFALL EAST OF JACKSONVILLE ***

PEOPLE IN NORTH EAST US ( DC,MARYLAND,NEW JERSEY,NYC)

PLEASE REFER

www.nhc.noaa.gov for details

Hurricane Irene all set to slam East coast.

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AFTER INVADING BERMUDA AND HAVING GONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,HURRICANE IRENE HAS NOW A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH A MSLP OF AROUND 947MB AND CAT 3

DETAILED UPDATE ON THE BLOG AT 0400 UT

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

HURRICANE IRENE INTENSIFIES TO CAT 3

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

As against the forecast of METD WEATHER, Hurricane Irene has intensified to a Cat 3 hurricane

as of 1200 UTC, Irene is located at 21.9N and 73.3W about 85km SE of Acklinis Is,Bahamas and the eye is heading towards THE CROOKED ISLAND,BAHAMAS

THE WIND MAX NOW ARE AROUND 185KM/HR WITH AN AIR PRESSUR OF AROUND 957MB!

HURRICANE IRENE 12HR FORECAST

( 1200HRS,24TH AUG TO 0000 HRS,25TH AUG)

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALL THE WAY ON ITS PATH

** DRY AIR IS FORECASTED TO HIT IRENE IN NEXT 36HR

Hurricane Irene passing churning in the Atlantic

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

ENTIRE BAHAMAS SHALL WATCH OUT FOR AN INDIRECT TO DIRECT LANDFALL OF HURRICANE IRENE

STRONG WINDS,GALE,STORM SURGES,HEAVY RAINS SHALL CONTINUE WITH THE PASSING OF IRENE

THE BLOG WAS NOT UPDATED DUE TO BUSY SCHEDULE OF MINE

I CONDEMN THIS ABSENCE

A.DEORAS

--------------------

The Category 2 Hurricane Irene which had reached a Cat.2 status yesterday,weakened to Cat 1 and again at Cat 2 is churning in the Atlantic Ocean.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC,24th August 2011...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

The satellite images as of now are confirming flaring convection at the centre as the hurricane is moving over a warm sea of SST of 28C in a region of favored ENE outflow of 20kt upper air divergence and a 30kt SE convergence at lower level.

The Total Precipitable Water ( TPW) shows presence of moist air mass in its vicinity thats fueling Irene.

The Max wind speed now is around is around 155km/hr and the movement is WNW at 15km/hr. The MSLP is 966mb.

Forecast ( 12hr 0700-1900hrs UT)

The present satellite images agree that previously stabilized eyewall is now weakening ( disappearing) and there doesn't appear any secondary eyewall.

This weakening is attributed to the landfall in the Turks and Calcos Is. ( the rainbands outer are passing through the islands).

Slight weakening shall persists with Irene as it passes through the islands.

Thus the 12hr tendancy of Irene remains a partial weakening and it might go again in the Cat 1 status as per Saffir Simpson Scale

USA Impact-

Long Range models are in agreement that Irene will travel to USA East coast by Thursday afternoon. There is a region of favored development ( strengthening) after Irene bypasses The Bahamas. Models from CIMSS indicate presence of some dry air likely to be East of the centre of Irene which might cause some weakening. However after Irene bypasses this dry air, it shall encounter warmer sea surface temperature and region of negligible wind shear for favored development

When it passes close to the USA East Coast, it shall continue to maintain its intensity

Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Atlantic Ocean

AMZ080-240930- SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS 1130 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011  ...HURRICANE WARNING...  .TONIGHT AND WED...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NW AND N WITH HIGHEST WINDS INCREASING TO 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT WITHIN 40 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES. HIGHEST SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 40 FT LATE WED. ELSEWHERE S OF 28N E OF 78W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. S OF 28N W OF 78W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT S OF 24N...BECOMING NE TO E WED AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S OF 27N DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND 6 TO 8 FT N OF BAHAMAS. N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE WED. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL LATE WED. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS IN BANDS WITHIN 420 NM OF IRENE. .WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N OF 22N W OF 70W TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHIFTING NW AND N. HIGHEST WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER W OF 70W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS IN BANDS WITHIN 360 NM OF IRENE. .SAT...N OF 28N WINDS TO 33 KT...DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS TO 24 FT SUBSIDE TO 12 FT LATE. S OF 28N SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. .SUN...W OF 70W SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL EXCEPT 10 TO 11 FT FAR NE. E OF 70W S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.