Tornadoes possible from near I-35 in Oklahoma and Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana and the lower-Mississippi Valley.

CHANCE OF TORNADO AND HAILS WITH HIGH WINDS IN LOUSIANA.

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND NEXT STAGE IS OF A SUPERCELL.

THIS SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVLPOPE MAINLY OVER LOUSIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

 

SYNOPSIS.-

THE 850MB SYSTEM which we call as low level jet system says 50knot low level jets mainly over lousiana. The gulf of mexico is sending mositures in that area which is causing some instabilities in atmosphere. We call it as Cape and the value for cape is about 3000J/Kg. The Windshears are ample in lousiana which can help in development of horizonral spinning effect.As this part of time most of usa is cold enough and contais dryness in air, Southern areas which are near coast have chance of tornadoes.

We will surely have floods in southern side.

 

a few tornadoes will impact areas from near I-35 in Oklahoma and Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana and the lower-Mississippi Valley.A warm front is present in this area which will cause tornadoes. SO people living are warned..........

 

There has been a massive snow storm in the Colorado and wyoming. We will update with the pictures soon....

 

 

METD

Akshay

HEAVY WINTER STORM IN COLORADO,WYOMING,THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE HUGE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGING IN THE COUNTRY

AS THE 300,500mb maps are showing  a large trough is digging in. It will dig through the western states like Colorado,Wyoming.

This trough will cause heavy precipitation in the form of snow.

The heaviest snow should be in Colorado and Wyoming, with portions of southeastern Wyoming expecting one to two feet of snow by Friday morning. Behind this system, another system will move into the Pacific Northwest late tonight into tomorrow and Friday bringing some locally heavy rain and mountain snow to Washington.

In the southern plains a lot of air packets will be present wioth changing shears<helicity>.

 

MODERATE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY

A LONG TROUGH WILL BE DIGING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER FROM THE
NORTH-WEST AND WILL DIG THROUGH THE STATES UTAH,COLORADO
LATER THIS TROUGH WILL COME TO THE SOUTHERN USA AND WILL BRING FLOODS
AND THUNDERSTORMS

TO BE COMPLETED
AKSHAY DEORAS

Chilly Nights.Some scope of Snowfall in Upper-north India

METD WEATHER STATION
WINTER FORECASTING DEPT.
NGP

TEMPERATURE OF NIGHT BREAKS THE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN OCT 2002.
LAST NIGHT;S TEMP. WAS ABOUT 13.2. THIS WAS PREVIOUSLY RECORDED 7
YEARS AGO IN THE YEAR 2002.

2] FORECASTING---

THE COOL WINDS ARE DOMINTATING. THIS WINDS ARE MOSTLY BETWEEN
10-15KM/HR. THEIR APPROACH IS FROM NORTH,NORTH EAST.
NAGPUR HAS A WINDCHILL MORE THAN TEMPERATURE-
WINDCHILL IS THE TEMPERATURE WHICH WE FEEL AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURE ON A
THERMOMETER IS MORE THAN WINDCHILL.

THURSDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN THE UPPER NORTH REGIONS LIKE
J&K SONAMARG, PARTS OF HIMACHAL PRADESH..

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THE HUMIDITY AND AS A RESULT OF IT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE AIR THAN NORMAL LEVEL AT THIS
TIME.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY<NIGHT TEMP.>
THE WINDS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ENABLE WEARING SWEATERS IN THE MORNING...

FORECASTING FOR TEMPERATURES
LOW FOR THIS WEEK POSSIBLY WOULD BE TONIGHT,27TH OCT-28TH OCT

EXPECTED- 12 C

for the week temp,would be around 15C AT NIGHT AND 32-34 C IN MORNING.......

TAKE CARE
METD WINTER DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

LUPIT SPARES PHILIPPINES. HEADING NORTH!!!

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT TO SPARE PHILIPPINES.

THERE HAS BEEN A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUPIT
LUPIT AS ON 20TH OCT 2009 WAS HEADING TO THE PHILIPPINES AND WAS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A LANDFALL TODAY.
THE CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LUPIT IS IN THE AREA OF COLD
WATER,DRY AIR SO IT IS LOSING ITS STRENGTH. THE INFRARED AND THERMAL
IMAGES SHOW THAT ITS EYE IS NO MORE THUS IT IS A MORE DISORGANIZED
STORM NOW.
HOWEVER IT IS SURELY BRINGING RAINS IN THE AREAS WHICH COME IN THE
PRECIPITATION ZONE OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 965mb.IT HAS GUSTS OF 64MPH AND THE
WINDS EQUIVALENT TO 63mph. IT IS AT 19.5 N,123.5E.
IT MAY BRING ABOUT 12 INCH RAINFALL PER DAY.........

WE SHALL LET YOU KNOW LATER
METD
AKSHAY

FINAL FEW ACTIVITIES IN THE OCEANS.HURRICANE RICK,THE SECOND STORNGEST HURRICANE RECORDED IN EAST PACIFIC

THE CYCLONE SEASON IS AT THE END FOR THIS YEAR.
CURRENTLY TWO SUPER HURRICANES ARE IN ACTION
HURRICANE RICK AND MAJOR TYPHOON LUPIT

HURRICANE RICK IS THE SECOND MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RICK GREW RAPIDLY YESTERDAY MORNING WITH WINDS OF 180MPH AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 906mb.THE PREVIOUS RECORDED WAS HURRICANE LINDA IN THE
YEAR 1997 WHICH HAD WINDS OF 185MPH AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 902mb.

HURRICANE rick was the second one as it could get light wind shear,
high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric
moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and
most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical
cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of
2006, which also had 180 mph winds.Wind shear will gradually increase
and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick
approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before
landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category
2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at
landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model.

Currently rick is at 15.8N,108.3 W
Winds are of 170mph
Movement is WNW at 13mph.
Cat- 5
pressure at center- 914mb..

It will make a landfall at La Paz as Cat 2 hurricane on Wednesday.

2] SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT
Lupit is a super typhoon with wind of 24km/hr,,gusts of 296km/hr
Lat- 17.6N
long- 134 E
Movement- ENE at 11km/hr

Expected to make a landfall north of phillipines at tuguegaro city. as
cat 3 typhoon by thursday.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES-

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY

STORM CHASERS SEASON 3 STARTS FROM TONIGHT ON DISCOVERY CHANNEL

MY FAVORITE PROG.. STORM CHASERS WILL TELECAST THE FRESH SEASON 3 TONIGHT

ALL THOSE WHO LIVE IN USA,PLEASE DON'T FOGET TO WATCH STORM CHASERS
SEASON 3 ON DISCOVERY CHANNEL.
THE ACTION STARTS AT 8PM ET AND THE SEASON 3 PREMIERS AT 10PM ET.

THE TEAMS FOR THIS SEASON IS
REED TIMMER'S DOMINATOR SRV,SEAN CASEYS' TIV,TWISTEX OF TIM SAMRAS..

Catch all the chases that was done in this season of 2009.....

see
http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/storm-chasers.html
for details

Akshay

Early Snowfall this year

The time for the snowfall has set it.

This time it is an early snowfall as usually snow comes little late than october.

But this time the chance for snowfall in the upper north east areas is there

synopsis-

A couple of low pressure systems will produce snow storms in this weekend. The first of this system is expected to move away from the usa coast early Friday. So there will be snow in this region.

The ingredients for this snow storm are present.

The low pressure areas are present. We have the cold air fronts coming in which reduce the temperature and there are drops in the pressure in that area

TO start the precipitation it is essential to have ,moisture which will be present this weekend in the warned areas. Temperatures are less which is favourable.

Another low pressure area will ,move near the coast which will add more snow in the areas warned and also will bring rains in the areas of less height.

NWS has issued winter warnings as well.

Areas warned for friday <the first low pressure system>

southern Upstate New York and the mountains/valleys of Pennsylvania,southeast New York and southern New England.

Areas warned for the second L pressure system

eastern New York and much of New England minus northern Maine.

METD WEATHER

USA

AKSHAY

Show over,Storms leaving the auditorium

Show over,Storms leaving the auditorium

 

After many trees fall,many houses destroyed the squall lines are finally becoming less active as the low level jets are approaching north-east. There is no instability for developing into storms.

 

total reports-

152

tornado reports-<EF2>

2

 

hails-2

and 148 high wind reports.

no more weather problems in southern plains now for another 2-3 days

 

AKSHAY'S GYAAN WILL COMPLETE 100 ARTICLES ON SATURDAY,10/10/09

DONT FORGET TO SEE THEM

Squall line across south-central USA

Incredible Squall line cell across USA

A Beautiful trough is dangling across south central USA.

The squall line is right from texas to the lake area.

Instabilities in the upper atmosphere are less.

SPC NOTE_

SUBSTANTIAL /40+ KT/ LOW LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXISTNEAR TRACK OF OZARKS SFC LOW...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN OK ENE INTO NRNAR/SE MO THIS AFTN...AND ENE INTO SRN IL/IND A BIT LATER THIS EVE. ALONG THIS AXIS...TRAINING SUPERCELL STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR ACONSIDERABLE PERIOD OF TIME...POSING A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND/ORDMGG WINDS THIS AFTN INTO LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY FRI.

AS later in day, The Upper level jet will show negligence to the southern proviences and will flow towards east. Features will be good but there will be be few low level jets and the instability with moisture will be less.

The above note for 48hrs+

People around eastern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, western Kentucky and southern Illinois should take note of the weather

Akshay

STORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA.Hails possible

Storms are expected in morning at north-east texas <oklahoma-texas
border>,across Oklahoma,SW MO.

The Huge trough is hovering across souther,Central USA. This trough
though is not a threat. The CAPE which is the thermodynamic
instability is currently more in state of north-east texas<oklahoma
border> The RUC MODEL is indicating some good signs of HAILS.
The important factor is of the Helicity which inturn is good.

THE 850mb Air which we call as an important for forecasting will fire
storms as there are LOW LEVEL JETS across the areas mentioned above
with strong values in Central Oklahoma.The Chance for squall lines is
more.

Later morning,the jets,trough will progress East and reduce the
potentials of storms.
The onset of weather has already started and will aggregate further.

There are another good things happening in the lake areas.

So stay safe from Hails...
SPC has also picked up on it and has released hail warnings

issued- 0939
upto- 1938
time- GMT

Akshay

Super Typhoon Melor,Cat-5

Another threat in Pacific

 

Super Typhoon Melor is A cat. 5 Typhoon. winds are 167mph and the gusts are round 201mph.

The islands of GUAM are just saved from the destruction.It will move throughout the day with cat 5 and will get converted to cat 4 tomorrow..

 

As it is quiet away from land chance of hiting islands is less

 

WINTER FORECASTING OF NAGPUR ON METD

METD WEATHER STATION

Regional Hq.

nagpur

 

Rains all the way today,.

Dear all

The Retreat of monsoon has already begin. the traces were seen by me in mid-september and on Oct.1 It has gained speed

 

Around September, with the sun fast retreating south, the northern land mass of the Indian subcontinent begins to cool off rapidly. With this air pressure begins to build over northern India. The Indian Ocean and its surrounding atmosphere still holds its heat. This causes the cold wind to sweep down from the Himalayas and Indo-Gangetic Plain towards the vast spans of the Indian Ocean south of the Deccan peninsula. This is known as the North-East Monsoon or Retreating Monsoon.They cross India diagonally from northeast to southwest. However, the large indentation made by the Bay of Bengal into India's eastern coast means that the flows are humidified before reaching Cape Comorin and rest of Tamil Nadu, meaning that the state, and also some parts of Kerala, experience significant precipitation in the post-monsoon and winter periods.However, parts of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and North-East India also receive minor precipitation from the northeast monsoon.

The winds are generally dry as we experienced in september mid. Sometimes when the Bay of Bengal cycle gets activated. thus it deposits moisture and rain clouds in the north-east air current. as we are quiet near the formation zone in bay of bengal we receive direct threats from the Bay as it is going on currently.

The Bay is currently warm enough to generate clouds and with low pressure. it looks as if the bay will create disturbances for another week. Once the oceans are cooled,the activity is stopped.

We are going to TIME the winter in NAgpur as we did for the monsoon.

Winters come in NGp when the COOL AIR comes from the north. It requires the formation of intense low pressure areas in MEDITERANEAN SEA..

 

The current date for winter<night temp below 17 C> is  Oct 29 2009

 

 

METD

Akshay

 

Typhoon Parma Threatens Philipines

Major Typhoon Parma in the Pacific
A major typhoon parma is moving with the winds of 138mph and gusts of 168mph.Its right on way to philipines.Its Eye will pass through areas such as Tuguegaro city and surrounding areas.
It shall enter this area with a Category three typhoon!.

Stay tuned for updates